We saw a huge reversal last week. The hot assets—energy, small-cap and financial stocks; commodities and crypto—all collapsed. Meanwhile, one of the biggest dogs of the past quarter—the buck—had an astounding turnaround, truly living up to its billing as the almighty dollar.
What happened? Wednesday’s FOMC meeting happened. The Fed’s more hawkish stance on rates is sending jitters across the markets that not only the easy-money days are coming to an end, but that peak growth is just about over.
For the week, the Dow fell 3.5%, its worst week since October as investors sold off stocks across just about every sector, erasing some $2.3 trillion in market cap off global equities.
Bitcoin has fallen further since I put this chart together over the weekend. It’s hard to know what exactly drives moves in this volatile asset (particularly on weekends), but it would stand to reason that investors are selling out of crypto to cover losing bets elsewhere. In any event, crypto is not looking like that wondrous hedge against inflation that bulls maintain.
The safe-haven dollar, meanwhile, is the big winner in all this markets tumult. Some analysts say long-dollar could be the big “pain trade” of the summer. Reminder: a strong dollar hits multinationals and dollar-denominated commodities particularly hard.
That said, it would be wise to watch the dollar’s moves, too.